Saturday, 27 February 2016

The Syrian Quagmire



Syria has really twisted into an international quagmire due to being the epicentre of intercontinental interests. USA and major European countries are financing and arming the Kurdish parties of which Turkey is complainant. The US and EU intend to have an independent Kurdish state keeping Turkish interests at bay. This divergent stance will further perturb Turkey which has also developed hostile relations with Russia. The flooded refugees are pouring all the neighbouring countries including the European. In Syria, Saudi Arabia is pressing High Negotiations Committee based on Syrian opposition parties to get implementation of UNSC Resolution 2254 to ceasefire in the civilian areas but in the meanwhile it is lavishly attacking on the poor Yemenis as well. They are supporting a dictator in Yemen when most of the country population has rejected him. They are forcefully making him the legitimate president. Syria has also almost the same situation. A chunk of country population is against him. But here the Saudi alliance is arming the differed population against the president. Are national interests meant hypocrisy and double standards? This chaotic world is due to these bloody poltergeist and rogue states.
All anti Assad forces have played key role in creating and arming ISIS and other militant groups like Al-Nusra Front. In the disguise of fighting against ISIS, they actually are trying to oust Assad. They are also arming other mild militant groups against Syrian government. If this is the course then why do they object and level blame on Pakistan for its policy of good and bad Taliban? A terrorist is good because he is playing in your hands and he is bad because he has known your weak points and has gained enough strength in his feathers to challenge you. Make a group, use it and then let it spread barbarism. The social analysis of the most of the militant groups shows that they were either forced to create or they were created for some specific nasty objectives. The proxy wars are fought on the shoulders of such groups.  
Saudi Arabia has formulated a 34 members’ alliance explicitly to fight against the ongoing terrorism. This alliance is presently about to run military exercises with reportedly 350000 soldiers, 20000 tanks, 2450 warplanes and 460 military helicopters. Reports of the credible research institutions show that most of the worldwide funding to the terrorists, extremists and non-state actors including ISIS is majorly given by Saudi Arabia and its other allies. Most of the terrorists around the globe have both ideological and financial lineage with the Gulf States. Due the religious sanctities, these places should have been the abode of peace and role model for the whole world but unfortunately philosophy and teachings of Islam are hijacked. Does Islam preach monarchism, ancestral regimes or kingdoms? These are actually fiefdoms and are having no relation with the Islamic political system.
In case, if KSA invades Syria along with Turkey, Egypt and other monarchical puppets, will Iran, Russia and China remain silent? If Turkey attacks Syria in disguise of attacking Kurds who in her words are bombing its cities, will it work? What moral grounds and legal cover the attackers do have? How far the UNSC will intervene or will remain relevant? And will not Israel move ahead of Golan Heights which are also reportedly working as the hospitals of the injured ISIS terrorists? KSA and Turkey are seemingly waiting for American joining of the Syrian invasion but the later has election year and until election, it is not probably directly entering into this war. If the Republicans win, situation may turn into a war but the plunged America will hardly land its ground troops in Syria because of its aimed presence in Afghanistan. The only thing America has achieved so far in Afghanistan is devastation of the region and installation of India to create more devastation and imbalance. Is this war against terrorism?
Turkey is suffering both on economic and diplomatic fronts. A shrewd and sagacious country is that which increases friends not foes. Turkey sees YPG of PYD as a threat to its country but EU and US do not. PKK is another major challenge for Turkey. Azaz, a frontier city in Syria is much important both for Kurds and Turkey. If Kurds capture it, they will have Kobane and Afrin along with Azaz in a row but this will be a great blow for Turkey as it transports aid to the anti Assad groups through this city. Interestingly, Turkish government is fighting with Turkish Kurds, somehow supporting Syrian Kurds and has good tune with Iraqi Kurds. Is the Justice and Development Party (AKP) politicizing the Syrian war and bomb attacks to create its need among people for next comeback? Turkey has earned a great respect and goodwill during past two decades but now it is losing swiftly. Both Turkish government and its people must analyse their actions with the eyes of the outer world.
The appeasement policy and jaundice eye of the US-West though is presently more harming to the Muslim countries but this nuisance will not let them free. A grave digger is one day also buried. Propagated media is a big tool to make international opinion. The deception and duplicity of the controlled international media is intercepted and proliferated by the social media. Much of the gruesome plans of the different players have been unearthed by social media because of open flow of information on it. All and sundry now better know who really are smudging the world peace and who are the actual beneficiaries of the oil drilling from the areas under ISIS. Few months back, Russia was much similar to its 1900’s position but her entry into Syria has changed the political course of the Middle East. Now it is superpower of the ME.
No one has won in Afghanistan and no one is going to win in Syria as well. Instead, extremism, sectarianism, terrorism, refugees, IDPs, destruction and poverty will loom large. Basher ul Assad will sustain for the time being. To stay for some more years, he will have to change his course. If he leaves, the country will fall into the hands of Saudi and Turkey backed Muslim extremists which neither the Assad supports want nor the Kurds and also not the other minority groups including Christians. But future is not of the monarchs in the whole region. The circumference of the war can expand but there is not going to erupt WW-III. Turkey and KSA will suffer politically, economically, socially and diplomatically more loss. Kurds will get stronghold of some more areas but they will not be able to make an independent state in coming few years. Iran will sustain and prosper as it is her time. Europe and US will face more radicalism and shooting incidents. The saddest aspect of the whole story is that Muslims are killing Muslims on each others’ cost. This money can fully overcome the gravest poverty and mass illiteracy from the globe. Recent agreement between Russia and America on ceasefire in Syria and announcement of elections in this April are good omens. But it is needed to have a permanent solution which is only possible when regional interests are made subservient to the regional peace.

Sunday, 14 February 2016

3b16



If life on earth began more than 3 billion years ago then why are we clung to 2016? Should not it be 3b16? Here ‘b’ denotes billion; overall 3b16 means three billion and 16. Was the life first started on the earth which is believed 4.54 billion years old or brought on it from somewhere else like Mars which has also a history of similar timeframe? No one is assured of the happenings during the creation of earth and life which have a difference of around 1500 million years. Were the early progenitors the salt of this earth or extra terrestrial? Primates which are said the originators of the Homo sapiens have 48 chromosomes while the humans themselves have 46, what about the two missing chromosomes? Mary King though has answered it that the missing chromosome was converted into a big chromosome after thousand years of evolutionary process and it is named as chromosome 2. But this mystery is still unsettled. It is, however, indecisive that whether the humans are the outcome of creationism or evolution. Can a living being be created from a non living being or can it evolve from a lifeless thing? Is the origin of all species same, if same then why plants are different from the animals and why are there different types of plants and animals? And how did just one bigbang result in the creation of countless number, types and forms of organisms, substances, gasses and other matters?  
 The problems with the present calendar are that it neither covers the Western Bigbang theory nor adheres to the Muslims’ ‘Kun’ (be) philosophy. Is big bang the ‘kun’? If the bigbang is non-living then how can it breed a living organism? It does not include the hunting and caving period, the Arch of Noah and the origin of human species. The whole past of the human beings just ends up in the words like ancient and primitive. Terms like prehistory and pre-recorded history (which mean that the incidents happened but we do not have written proofs of them) are used to denote the unknown incidents. But interestingly, we are still unidentified and in disagreement that when the prehistory became history though anthropologists, archaeologists, geologists and palaeontologists have given several theories on the origin of life and human species on the basis of excavations and found fossils. We are not much aware about humans’ history because more than 99 percent of it happened during prehistory and pre-recorded history.
We categorize humans abodes into different phases like the Stone Age, Palaeolithic era, Neolithic era, the new Stone Age, agricultural revolution (between 8000 and 5000 BCE), middle-ages, industrialism, modernism and post-modernism but we start our regular history from the time of the Christ. Why do we do so? Are we human beings so little and young? Why do not we start our history since the first human was born or when the universe was created? Scientists have made wonderful advancements in the fields of science and technology but they are still not agreeing at the point of human’s creation. When we find a new item from an excavation, our humans’ evolution or creation history is also changed. 
When, where and how the first human was born? Is life only existed on earth or does it exist on some other unknown places, planets etc as well? Is the life support system also available at any other star? Muslims’ sacred book, Quran says that the beginning of life is started from water. It means that it is water which confirms the existence of life. Is life possible without water? Water is said integral to life because it is a solvent; it harbours most of the biological and chemical reactions but scientists claim that supercritical carbon dioxide, ammonia and formamide can replace it. Humans are composed of 70 to 80 percent of water, they need some water to drink, so, how will they balance all such things in the absence of water, will the supercritical CO2, ammonia and formamide prove as the true replacements? Can they be intaken? Can methane-ethane cycle on Titan of Saturn replace or work as an alternative to hydrologic cycle of the Earth? But it seems that there is no due substitute of water as a substance in so abundance which could benefit every specie and non-specie at the same time. By now, there is no single organism that could survive without water even the cyanobacteria Chroococcidiopsis that also needs water though very little. Water not only gives birth to life but it promotes it as well. What will happen of sun’s radiation, precipitation, metabolism, forests, animal and humans’ without water? In its answer, thoughts become protracted after meandering ubiquitously.  
The theories of human origin and evolution like creationism, intelligent design, Lamarck, natural selection of Darwin, laws of Mendel, new-Darwinism like modern synthetic and punctuated equilibrium, conditional evolution, all present greater or lesser degree of dissimilar philosophies. It is unsure that the human beings are the result of evolution but it is sure that this theory is evolutionary. Thus, Charles Darwin was not the first in presenting the theory of evolution; it was first presented much before him. None of the theory is still mutually accepted and endorsed. Every theory is actually incomplete.  
World has witnessed a number of civilizations which reportedly date back to at least 8000 BC. The concept of agriculture is also around 10000 years old. But interestingly, no one knows that where did it happen at first. The known civilized civilizations like Mehrgarh, Vinca, Zapotec, Mesopotamian, Indus valley, ancient Egyptian, Mayan, Chinese, ancient Greek (though burials found in the Franchthi Cave in the Argolid, Greece dates back around 7250 BC), Hattian and the Persia are 7000-2500, 5500, 5000, 3300-750, 2600-1900, around 3500 and 3150, 2600, 2700, 2700-1500, 2600-1800, 550 old and all in BC respectively but we start the calendar from the Jesus’ incident. If we do not consider the formation of calendar from the emergence of the life then at least we should start it from the beginning of the first known civilization. Archaeology is another important detrimental in the formation of history. During past 5000 years, around 250 races have been passed. But the rivers, lakes and mountains have not changed their positions.   
If we have to survive for a long, we need to spread out into space. And for humans’ grandeur, splendour, dignity and greatness, the calendar should not be clung to mere 2016; it should be dated back either to the existence of life or to the oldest civilization. Thus, it is better that the calendar should be 3b16 instead of 2016.

Tuesday, 26 January 2016

The Climate Refugees



Seasonal migrations are in practice since a long but now we will have to accommodate the swelling climate refugees. Climate is actually the pattern of variations in temperature, humidity, precipitation, wind, atmospheric pressure and meteorological differences of a particular region with an interval of thirty years. The climatic system is so affected by the global warming that a single incident on one nook is immediately altering the lives of other corner. The thirty years pattern developed by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is practically no more in practice and needs to be revisited as year proceeded is totally different from the year preceded. Whether they are rain forests, monsoon, tropical savanna, humid subtropical and continental, oceanic, Mediterranean and subarctic climate, tundra, steppe, polar icecap or they are the deserts, all are rapidly changing. History may repeat itself but climate is likely not going to. Severing cold and resurrecting hot have become the course of climate. 

The British ministry of climate change has forecasted that the year 2016 will be the warmest year and the temperature will possibly remain above 1.1 Celsius. Out of total world surface, around 33 percent is arid and semi-arid whereas rest is water. Since 1990, the seas’ level is risen up to 15 cm. And since 1980, more than ten times greater part of ice than the size of Britain is melted. From last 110 years, more than nine thousand gaga ton ice of the Green Land is melted. Annually, it is melting with the speed of more than 186 gaga ton since 2003. Algal biomass has declined around 40 percent since 1950 due to oceanic warming. The ecosystem is disturbed. Many species have been wiped out and countless are on the verge of extinction. 

Climate is shaping and bending all the novel developments in the world. The intensified carbon dioxide concentration and other heat trapping gasses in the atmosphere have warmed the earth. Rising of seas, protracted floods, hasty melting of snow and ice, extreme heat strokes, fires, droughts and heavy rainfalls are not on their own but due to humans’ besieging of the nature. During 2015, more than ten million acres of forests have been burnt due to wildfire only in USA. Survival of all the things is tied with the climate. The saddest view is that all the na├»ve and peace loving creatures will also bear the brunt of humans’ inhuman activities. Change in the usual practices of rain and temperature has altered the blooming of plants, ripping of fruits and reaping of crops. Severe typhoons and hurricanes are imminent. After the industrial revolution, the nuclearization is proved a stab in the back of the nature. The incumbent century is actually a transition from bad to worst. Its end will be totally different from its start. 

From the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change which was incepted in 1992 till 2015 Paris Climate Change Conference COP21, all such conferences are none more than an international tea parties. Montreal protocol is failed to discourage the production and consumption of ozone depleting chemicals.  Just ten countries are collectively emitting more 70 percent of the total carbon dioxide but the whole world is paying its cost. What a grave injustice as it is the development on the cost of other countries’ underdevelopment! Under Paris agreement, the attendants have decided to maintain world temperature up to 2.7 Celsius till 2100 but it is only possible if the agreed plan is fully acted upon. If the present policies are continued, the temperature will rise to 3.6 Celsius till 2100 and if no measures are taken then it will averagely rise to 4.5 Celsius. It means complete destruction without an atomic war. It means water all around. And it means floating corpses everywhere. 

Precipitation (drizzle, rain, sleet, graupel, snow or hail) occurs when a portion of atmosphere is saturated with water vapour has now totally deviated from its previous pattern. We are facing sudden rainfalls and untimely hailstorms. But it is to remember that Precipitation is very fundamental. Neither the water cycle is completed nor the fresh water is deposited without it. 

The problem is that politics around the globe rests on the corporates’ money. It is reined how they pull it. The stock market value of coal, oil and gas companies is more than $5 trillion whereas the value of renewable energy is just $300 billion. This is a huge gap. Unfortunately, hardly anyone is sincerely calculating climate risks. Winter has become fully short in the South Asian region. Presently, Pakistan is witnessing the shortest winter of its history. Biodiversity is at stake. Food and fashion are abruptly changing affecting the markets and incomes.  

India which is currently producing 5 GW of electricity via solar energy has planned to increase it to 100 GW by 2022. China, US etc are also augmenting it. But what if the sun also becomes cold and the oceanic tides shape as uncontrollable? Well, if this surge is continued swiftly, keeping in view and balancing the demands of fatly growing population and gluttony corporates, the dependence on coal, oil and gas will be reduced. If this is achieved, this will be good shift toward clean energy, clean environment and clean world. Pakistan is very passively moving toward renewable energy due to its incompetent government. None of the policy maker and implementer in it is concerned and cautious about the climate change. 

Carbon pricing is another good solution to discourage carbon emissions. In order to reduce the thick pollution in the city, Delhi government in India has started odd-even number formula under which only those vehicles will operate having odd numbers plates and the next day only those having even number plates. Toyota, the world largest car manufacturing company has decided to completely end oil based production by 2050 and to shift it on clean energy mechanism. Heavy plantation is indispensable. Paulownia, a plant which is hardwood, fireproof, drought tolerant, insect tolerant, wind tolerant and rot resistant is much cultivated in China, Japan and Korea. China is planting it on 150000 acres per year as it absorbs carbon dioxide ten times greater than any other plant. If carbon emissions are not cut, in the years coming, we should be ready to add the climate refugees in the list of migrants, IDPs, immigrants and asylum seekers etc. And this time, this move can be from North to South and urban to rural.   

Friday, 8 January 2016

Buying Peace While Funding the War



One of the smartness of the both the US and Europe is that they have become well-heeled and developed on others’ resources. They make adventures on other’s finances and costs. And interestingly, except the War of Independence and the War of 1812, the US has not fought a single major war on its own land. It knowingly let the Japanese to attack Pearl Harbour to get a reason to enter into the WW-II and so is the fable of 9/11. War on terror is actually the war for terror, the war for business and the war to keep the world instable. The US nurtured and perpetrated it in Afghanistan and now it is circumcising the whole world. The most advanced countries of the world are fighting this war with very latest technologies but in vain. What a war that it has no standstill but is expanding day by day! The truth is that it is not aimed at alleviating the terror but spreading it. It is also equally true that one who digs for others surely falls too sooner or later. Why do not the terrorists attack on the businesses and corporations and why do they attack only on the underprivileged? Why do they attack on the churches and mosques which are mostly abodes of the impoverished? Simply, it is because the architectures of such wars are the greedy corporates.
Reportedly, since 9/11, the US has spent around $6 trillion in fighting its war on terror in Afghanistan and Iraq. And if it immediately pays back the war debts, it will have to pay additional $7 trillion to pay interest on those debts by 2053. It is spending $9 million per day to combat ISIS since August 2014 and on the other hand it is arming and funding all anti-Assad forces as well. It has around 800 military bases around the world and is carrying special operations in more than 100 countries. On the contrast, the arms sale to the countries presently in war in one way or the other by the top 100 US and European corporations was recorded $401billion just during 2014. Will these profiteering corporations ever intend to cease arms’ manufacturing and promote peace in reality? Never. Arming in the back and fighting in the front, these double standards will reciprocate as love breeds love and hate multiplies hate.
Who has created ISIS? Whether it was the result of mis-governance of Iraqi government, the post US attack vacuum, the socio-economic circumstances, the isolation of Sunnis or the revenge of Saddam, one of its answer is the beneficiaries. And if it is still not defeated it is also due to those beneficiaries that are probably Israel, Saudi Arabia, the US itself, some of the European countries (though most of them has learnt lesson from Paris attack) and Turkey. Turkey has remained the leading Muslim country but in the present scenario it seems on the quash. It must revisit its foreign policy. Reportedly, Qatar, which is also the strongest base of the US in the region, is also lavishly financing the proxies in the region and beyond.  India is investing in Afghanistan and spreading chaos in Pakistan being over there and also thinking that its own country will remain peaceful. It is nothing than a daydreaming. 
Saudi Arab has fuelled extremism around the globe. It has tried to change the governments. It has funded the non-state actors, jihadists and fanatics. The unfortunate aspect is that it has horrendously destabilized the whole Muslim world. Afraid of the Jasmine revolution in 2011, it pumped more than $130 billion in its economy to raise the salaries and to spend on social uplifting projects, though it temporarily worked, but is proved infertile in the long run as the unrest is bugling and swelling. The country is stumbling. Its foreign reserves are depleting as it is spending $10 billion monthly to pay bills and is heading toward IFIs for loans. Its global foreign policy has got setback on all fronts. Its incumbent year’s budget deficit is $130 billion. The coming year is also bleaker. On the other hand, Iran, though historically, it has played a defensive role but presently it has engaged itself in many countries. It is supporting Shia uprisings all over the globe. It is also holding up its allied countries especially Iraq and Syria. Though, Iraq is fighting on many fronts: against its proposed division into three parts, against pro-Saddam forces, against the ISIS and also against the other regionally funded non-state actors but its instant future does not appear peaceful. In fact, Muslims are victims of the ideological and geo-political conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The West has synthetic fascination. The people can also be fooled now a days but not as, as they were made earlier. The internet and the social media though they are shammed but have become the strength of common masses. The West has armed with deadly weapons not only to the Middle East but to the rest of world as well. The cluster bombs going to be used against the poor Yemenis and the weapons with ISIS, all are Western made. Will the affecters forgive the attackers and love the West? Probably not. Israel is nuclear due to US. It may take the revenge of holocaust from the whole world. Israel has equal share in the volatility of the Middle East. Actually, American assistance to Israel is invoking the world into war.
One’s vying for peace while funding the war is no more practicable. It is not possible to have both war and peace at the same time. We have to choose one. The world is not anarchic on its own. USA has changed its post-USSR policy of 1991. For it, Russia is emerged as a potential threat. The US can shoot its gun putting on the shoulders of the NATO and can also pick a stick from the Arabian Peninsula excluding Yemen and including Israel. The shot downing of Russian plane by Turkey is seemed its part. The fall of Arabian and African men in the wake of Arab spring was fuelled from the outer world though it was manipulated as internal crisis. The American policies are not to defeat the Muslim extremist groups but to put them under her bracket. Whatever the case is, America will lose and world will bleed more. If we want to attain peace we have to halt funding the wars. To me, world peace is a distant dream.